We propose to study recent changes in active life expectancy in the elderly (65+) and oldest-old (85+) U.S. populations and the nature of the LTC service use and needs of persons who become functionally dependent using two types of data. The first are national surveys of the non-institutionalized (the National Health Interview Surveys from 1962 to 1985; the 1984 supplement on Aging and its follow-up to 1986), the non-institutionalized chronically disabled (the 1982 and 1984 NLTC surveys) and the institutionalized elderly populations (the 1963 and 1969 Resident Place surveys; the 1973, 1977 and 1985 National Nursing Home surveys). These data sets monitor changes in the age trajectory of functional impairments and disability in the U.S. elderly population. To better understand the individual dynamics driving these population changes, longitudinally followed community populations with detailed event history data on health and functional changes as well as with experimentally varied levels of services will also be analyzed (i.e., the California MSSP study; the National Channeling Demonstration Study; the Georgia Adult Health Study). These studies contain large samples of persons over age 85. Both the national surveys and the longitudinal study populations will be analyzed with a multivariate, multi-episode event history model based on the "Grade of Membership" classification procedure. Since similar functional and health assessment information is often available in both the longitudinal community studies and the national surveys we will be able to a.) compare community studies in terms of the effects of different social, economic and health service contextual factors on the nature and timing of morbid, disability and mortality outcomes with detailed multivariate controls for functional and health status at baseline, b.) project the magnitude of intervention effects in the specific community populations to the national institutionalized and non- institutionalized populations. We will also investigate the properties of the multivariate, multiple episode event history model applied to complex sample survey data. These substantive and methodological analyses will reflect upon the efficacy of strategies to improve active life expectancy at the population level, the nature of recent changes in active life expectancy in the U.S., the demography and epidemiology of functional limitations in the elderly and oldest-old population, the acute and LTC service needs of those populations and on forecasts of changes in active life expectancy. Finally, we shall relate these changes in active life expectancy to patterns observed in both other developed nations (e.g., Canada and Australia) and in several less developed nations (e.g., Korea, Malaysia) where the consequences of population aging on the public health problems faced by the society have become significant.